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Nov 03, 2024

NFL Week 9 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

Introducing the Week 9 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL

Introducing the Week 9 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 9 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

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The Falcons are home favorites against a Dallas Cowboys team that only has won its games on the road this season. What could go wrong? Well, against the Cowboys, they might stand a chance of covering the 3-point spread, given that Dallas hasn't been the most profitable backing as a road underdog. That being said, the last two times Dallas has been +3 on the road this season, they have covered and won outright.

Dallas' offense is dysfunctional. No question. But Atlanta's defense might be the worst unit they have faced all season.

Case in point, there's a reason why the total in this game is so high-52 points, rising from the 48.5 opening line.

Both defenses are bad.

The Falcons’ offense is good, especially when they have faced bad defenses like the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Saints.

It’s hard to imagine we don't get a flurry of points at home in the dome. The one hesitation for slamming the over comes down to a potential run-heavy approach from Atlanta against the Dallas Cowboys’ terrible run defense. According to Next Gen Stats, Bijan Robinson has recorded a 57.6% success rate on under-center runs this season, the highest rate among 36 running backs with at least 30 carries.

Robinson has gained 176 yards and scored a touchdown across 33 such carries, resulting in 5.3 yards per carry, the 7th-most among the same group of 36 running backs. Matchup: the Cowboys’ defense has given up the most touchdowns (11) and allowed the 2nd-highest success rate (49.3%) against under-center runs this season.

The Falcons have a -4% pass rate over expectation in the last three weeks.

If Atlanta controls this game, they can simply run the ball. They need to be pushed into a more aggressive mindset by Dallas. Whether Big D's offense shows up or not...well the jury is out. Dallas has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL and second-worst red-zone offense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Dak Prescott has thrown into a tight window on a league-high 22.5% of his passes this season, making him the only qualified quarterback with a mark over 20%. Prescott has completed 7 of 12 tight window passes for 127 yards and a touchdown when targeting Jalen Tolbert but just 11 of 47 tight window passes for 137 yards and two interceptions when targeting all other receivers. The Falcons defense has forced a tight window on 18.0% of passes this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

What works in Prescott's favor in this game from a passing perspective is that he should have time in the pocket because the Falcons can't generate pressure. The issue is Prescott has the third-worst passer rating from a clean pocket.

Atlanta has been horrible defending lightbox fronts (4th-most yards allowed), using its defense in that formation at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. The Falcons are also bad against rushing inside the tackles (29th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game).

Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).

I think Dallas could try to establish some type of run game with Rico Dowdle back in the lineup. A few weeks ago, I fell for the game total over in Atlanta when it was Seahawks-Falcons, and I refuse to make the same mistake again. Even if we see points, I'm still taking the under on this severely bloated total.

Props:

Jalen Tolbert has at least 40.5 receiving yards in three straight games and in five of his last six.

Mike McCarthy spoke at length last week about getting running back Rico Dowdle more touches. I'd envision he will see more schemed-up plays as a receiver, given that the Falcons rank fourth in receptions to RBs this season. Dowdle has at least 16.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and all but two RBs the Falcons have faced this season have yet to exceed their receiving yards prop.

No quarterback that Dallas has faced has attempted between 28 and 39 attempts. It's either been extremely under (four times) OR extremely over (40-plus attempts). Considering Kirk Cousins has only gone over his pass attempts twice this season, easy under play here against a Cowboys defense that ranks second in run rate faced this season.

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The Commanders’ defense is night and day on the road compared to at home. They are the No. 2 defense in yards per game at home this season. They rank 30th in that category on the road. Some might view this as noisy, but we saw this splits trend last season with the Browns.

The betting trends favor Big Blue catching points at home. We saw these teams face off earlier this season in a breakout game for Malik Nabers. The Giants didn't give up a touchdown on defense, but they still lost by three points (21-18).

New York has continued to stifle teams in the red zone, boasting the fifth-best red zone defense.

Their defense, in general, has been pretty underrated. According to Next Gen Stats, the Giants have recorded a 35.0% pressure rate this season (10th), including a 44.2% pressure rate when blitzing (11th). They have a 35.7% pressure-to-sack conversion rate (1st) while recording a sack on a league-high 12.5% of dropbacks.

They rank dead last offensively in the red zone. Washington's offense has also had red-zone struggles, ranking 24th in red-zone TD conversion rate.

MetLife Stadium is home to the unders (one over combined between Jets/Giants), whereas the Commanders' road defense has created shootout game environments.

There's a push-and-pull dichotomy here when choosing sides, which is pushing me away from this game with a spread of a field goal plus. Remember the last time these teams played, the Giants didn't have a kicker? Early in the week, I was bullish on Commanders -3. But I don't feel nearly as great with the line moved to 3.5/4 in certain spots.

Ultimately, my most confident projection in this game is betting on the Commanders’ rushing offense. As presented by Next Gen Stats, Brian Robinson has recorded +67 rushing yards over expected on inside rushes this season, the fifth-most in the NFL.

Robinson has totaled 69 carries for 311 yards and five touchdowns on such carries. Robinson recorded 10 carries for 109 yards (10.9 YPC) and +74 rushing yards over expected on inside rushes against the Giants in Week 2, the most RYOE on such carries by a running back in a game this season. The Giants have allowed +163 rushing yards over expected to inside carries this season, most in the NFL.

I expect both offenses to pile up yardage in this game, with the O/U likely coming down to red-zone efficiency. Washington's red-zone defense isn't great, and their lapses on the road have me looking toward the over.

And even though the Giants have a good red zone defense, you can only keep this Commanders offense at bay for so long. Had one of their seven field goals been a TD the last time these teams met, or the Giants converted any of their extra-point attempts, this game would have gone over 43.5 points.

Props:

Brian Robinson destroyed the Giants’ defense to the tune of 133 rushing yards when these teams first played back in Week 2.

Malik Nabers has four games with 7-plus catches and two with four or fewer. If he is going over his reception prop (like he did back in Week 2 against the Commanders with ten catches), it will go WAY over the line. Bet it at plus money.

Tight end Zach Ertz was a key target in Week 8, hauling in 7 of his 11 targets for 77 yards. Ertz commanded a high 32.35% target share, contributing 113 air yards (27.16%). He has at least 3.5 catches in three straight games as the pseudo No. 2 WR for the Commanders.

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What do we know about the Browns when they play at home? They cover the spread. They are 71% ATS as home underdogs and 4-2 straight up. With Jameis Winston injecting new life into the Browns’ offense, I jumped early on the Browns +2.

I was perplexed that the Brownies weren't outright favorites against the Bolts.

Like I said last week, with Winston playing inspired football behind a defense that plays much better at home than on the road, I like taking the Brownies as home underdogs for the second straight game. Cleveland’s defense has shown up in back-to-back-to-back weeks against the Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens, so I think they can slow down a middling Chargers offense absent of supreme talent to come away with a second straight home upset.

For the game total, we will follow the same process we did with the sides: Play the hits, i.e., Chargers and the under.

Especially with Browns contests shading toward unders when they play at home. As good as Winston was last week, the Chargers are a tougher challenge to overcome.

The Bolts' defense ranks 5th in the fewest EPA/play allowed this season. They are also great at limiting explosive passing plays. According to Next Gen Stats, the Chargers defense has faced the 2nd-fewest air yards per attempt against (6.4) in the NFL this season, allowing the lowest completion percentage (72.5%) on attempts under 10 air yards.

Props:

According to Next Gen Stats, Ladd McConkey has recorded 238 receiving yards against man coverage this season, the 2nd-most among rookie wide receivers. McConkey set season highs in receiving yards over expected (+55), receptions over expected (+2.2), and yards per route (4.0) in Week 8. The Browns run a man-heavy defensive scheme.

In Nick Chubb's second game back from his injury, he led the rushing game with 16 carries for 52 yards, although he didn't find the end zone. These are not eye-popping numbers, but Chubb accomplished a feat no player has done against the Ravens’ elite run defense-surpassing 50 yards. With him getting healthier week by week, I love Chubb's potential against the Chargers to keep on improving. LAC does not stack the box (9%), which will help Chubb pick up yardage on the ground.

Five of the last six RBs to face the Chargers have exceeded their rushing projection, with them all hitting at least 64 rushing yards. In the last two weeks, they have allowed over 5.7 yards per carry and over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.

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This AFC East rivalry has been anything but competitive over the past several seasons, with Buffalo dominating almost all the matchups.

The Dolphins have been terrible as underdogs straight up and against the spread. It's been their Achilles heel for the last several seasons. They beat bad teams but then get exposed by GREAT teams. And given their schedule thus far, Buffalo is the best offensive unit they have faced all season.

We saw them allow 31 points against the Bills in Week 2. Last week, they gave up 28 points against Arizona. Both games were at home, where Miami is "supposedly" better.

We don't always see the Bills cover larger spreads as home favorites, as they sometimes play down to their competition. But against the Dolphins, they haven't held back.

In Buffalo's last four wins against the Dolphins, they have won by 21, 7, 28, and 3 points. Don't misremember Week 2. The score was 31-10 before Tua Tagovailoa got knocked out of the game. This Bills defense has had the upper hand against Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel.

The only way I can see Miami pulling off the upset is with their ground game setting the tone against the Bills’ run defense.

Buffalo’s run defense ranks 27th in yards per carry faced this season. However, it also ranks 7th best in EPA/rush attempt-an improvement from the Cardinals run defense Miami played a week ago.

Miami will have more issues stopping the Bills' dynamic rushing attack. This season, Miami is allowing one of the league’s most explosive rush rates.

Even with Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins are still fighting a massive uphill battle on the road against Buffalo. Meanwhile, I have no reservations about Buffalo’s ability to have its way with the Dolphins’ defense, which failed the test last week at home against Arizona.

Usually, I'm not particularly eager to lay this many points with Buffalo at home, but this is a specific matchup that Josh Allen delivers in. It's also the same spot where Miami dramatically underwhelms. I would lean toward the under based on the total, but there's too much firepower for me to feel overly confident about it. The Bills have added WRs to their team since the last time these teams played, and Miami is fully healthy offensively.

Props:

The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season. De'Von Achane has at least six catches in every single game that Tua Tagovailoa has started this season.

All the most comparable WRs to Jaylen Waddle vs Bills have gone OVER their reception numbers.

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Rewind all the way back to Week 1, and I was all over the Panthers in this spot against the Saints. Alas, Carolina hasn't exceeded expectations through the entire 2024 season. Instead, they are selling off every single asset they have. They just traded their best receiver, Diontae Johnson, to the Ravens. Andy Dalton is out, so Bryce Young will be starting again.

Meanwhile, the Saints will be getting back starting QB Derek Carr.

I've practiced restraint from betting on the Panthers the last two weeks, and it has saved my bankroll. But maybe I've just been missing out on opportunities to make money. Carolina has been a disaster. Young has a 27% record ATS. He has covered five games in 20 games played.

Even at 2-6, the Saints have the chance to play inspired by Carr’s return. The Broncos, led by Bo Nix, did whatever they wanted to against the Panthers’ defense.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Saints have scored 28.0 points per game in five games with Derek Carr as the starter and just 15.0 points per game in 3 games with Spencer Rattler as the starter.

I would expect nothing less from New Orleans in Week 9, given that one of the two times this offense has functioned well, it came against Carolina to open the season.

That said, the offense still won't be nearly as effective as it was out of the gates. Rashid Shaheed was Carr's big-play guy, and I'm concerned about the lack of sheer explosiveness from the Saints.

I projected this game much closer to 39.5 points, providing a major edge toward the under. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the last eight games between the Saints and Panthers have gone UNDER the total points line.

Props

In Week 8, Chris Olave led with eight receptions on 14 targets, totaling 107 yards at 13.4 yards per catch. Olave ran a route on 88% of dropbacks and had three red zone targets but did not score a touchdown. Olave dominated with a 37.84% target share, amassing 156 air yards, which accounted for 57.78% of the team's total air yards.

Without Rashid Shaheed for the rest of the season, Olave is looking at double-digit targets every single week. Every No. 1 WR the Panthers have faced since Week 2 has surpassed their receptions prop, with five going for at least six grabs.

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It was reported on Saturday that Drake Maye cleared the concussion protocol and will start for New England.

The Patriots defense has allowed the 5th-highest EPA per dropback (0.1) this season.

Tennessee's defense has been good against the lackluster competition, so this isn’t exactly a soft spot for the Patriots. Tennessee has been truck-sticked by the Bills/Lions on the road in back-to-back weeks, so their defensive numbers don't look nearly as good.

Even so, the Titans rank in the top 10 in EPA/play allowed on defense, while the Patriots rank 26th. The Titans also rank first in rushing stuff rate.

Mason Rudolph has given the Titans chances when he's played this season. He and Calvin Ridley were clicking against the Lions to open the game last week.

But we can't overlook the hot new trend sweeping the betting streets. Some are calling it the Lions hangover, while others are calling it the Honolulu Flu. Essentially, after teams play the Lions, they don't fair well the next week.

In 2024, teams are 0-6 straight up and ATS after playing Detroit (including Dallas off a bye week).

I was originally on the under in this game at 38.5 but with news of Maye playing, I'm flipping toward the over and take the Patriots as road underdogs at +3.5.

Keep in mind that the Titans could be without their top two starting RBs, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, slapping Julius Chestnut to get the start. This is not a ringing endorsement for the offense.

Stay tuned.

Props:

Rhamondre Stevenson. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Stevenson this season, as he is taking on the “Amari Cooper of RBs” mantra. Seven games played this season. Four top-10 finishes (including three inside the top-5). Then three outside the top 40 overall. Woof. One RB the Titans have faced this season has rushed for at least 65 yards (Jahmyr Gibbs last week). Gibbs is also the only RB to rush for at least 45 yards and score a TD against Tennessee this season.

In Stevenson's last 15 games as an underdog, he is 11-4 toward the UNDER on his rushing prop (73%).

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Although the betting trends aren't super convincing for the Bengals as touchdown home favorites (9-7-1 ATS), this team knows they are running out of time.

And what's more convincing, in my estimation, is that the Bengals under Joe Burrow typically rebound. 2-1 ATS coming off losses. Burrow is 17-5 against the spread following a loss.

The Raiders have been solid ATS as road underdogs (62% ATS, 8-5), but I still feel this team is very overmatched against the Bengals.

Even though they have stayed within striking distance against the Rams/Chiefs the last two weeks, I think this is where they will be fully exposed. Those two offenses don't have the same firepower as the Bengals’.

And Cincy's defense has improved in the last month or so against subpar QBs like Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones. I'd fully bucket Gardner Minshew into that tier of QB. Spoiler: when the Bengals have played "bad" quarterbacks this season, 3-1 toward the under (Andy Dalton is the one exception).

Eventually, the Bengals will have to win a game at home, and this seems like the right spot to do so.

As for the total, I am leaning toward the under at 45.5 points. Raiders road games lean toward the under-five of the last eight have gone under-and the Bengals’ offense isn't the same without Tee Higgins, who missed last week with an injury. In two of the three games without Higgins, the Bengals have scored fewer than 20 points.

Starting tackle Orlando Brown Jr. is also dealing with an injury for the Bengals.

When I projected this game out, it came closer to 44.5 points, providing some value toward the under.

Props

The Raiders are the only team with multiple running backs with fewer than -30 rushing yards over expected this season, with Alexander Mattison (-34) and Zamir White (-39) leading the way. The Bengals’ defense has allowed +119 RYOE to running backs this season, the 7th-most in the NFL.

According to Next Gen Stats, Brock Bowers leads the NFL in receptions and has the most receptions by a tight end through eight games all-time (52).

Bowers would be the youngest player in NFL history to lead the NFL in receptions.

The last six tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop.

Jakobi Meyers has at least 4.5 catches in four straight games this season and in every game since the Raiders moved on from Davante Adams. The Bengals have been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season.

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Bo Nix continues to improve every week in Sean Payton's offense. And he remains flawless against the number on the road, boasting a perfect 4-0 record ATS (3-1 straight up) despite being a six-point underdog or more in all contests. All year, the Broncos haven't lost a game by more than seven points. The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games.

This team shows no quit. Give them to me all day against a Ravens team that consistently has played down to their competition especially at home.

Baltimore's defense continues to struggle, and Denver should be able to do more than enough to keep this game within single-digit territory.

The Broncos still have the No. 1-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed. Baltimore has the eighth-worst defense in that category.

Lamar Jackson has also been missing practices this week with back and knee injuries, although he isn't expected to miss the game. But hey, it doesn't hurt the Broncos’ chances that the starting quarterback they are facing may not be 100 percent.

Props:

Troy Franklin contributed 5.41% of targets and collected 38 air yards (9.87%) in Week 8. He was third in routes and came short of another deep score from Nix. He's a rookie. Practice patience. He will benefit from the upcoming matchups (like the Ravens). He had gone over 30 receiving yards in two straight games before last week.

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What do we know about the Bears? Well, it's a team that you don't want to play or bet on when they go on the road. Or when they are underdogs.

All the trends are well below 50%, with the most glaring being the Bears as road underdogs. 5-10-1 ATS (33%). On the money line, as road underdogs? 2-14 (13%).

Looking for an upset special? Da Bears likely are not in Week 9.

Again, we bet them as favorites at home.

Their defense is solid, but they can be exposed against the run. They are second in EPA/pass play allowed but 14th in EPA/rush allowed. The Cardinals’ strength is their ground game. Arizona is 4-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.

James Conner has forced 54 missed tackles this season, the most in the NFL.

Conner has run to the strong side of the formation at the 6th-highest rate in the league (55.0%, min. 75 carries) and has the 2nd-most missed tackles forced on such rushes in 2024 (22). The Bears have recorded a 10.9% missed tackle rate this season (3rd-lowest), resulting in just 279 yards allowed after missed tackles (3rd-fewest) per Next Gen Stats.

Although the Cardinals have their own issues against the run - seventh-worst EPA/rush attempt.

According to Next Gen Stats, D'Andre Swift has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 30.6% of his rushes since Week 4, the 5th-lowest rate among running backs (min. 30 carries). The Cardinals have contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on just 33.6% of carries this season, the 5th-lowest in the NFL.

Swift has rushed for at least 68.5 yards in four straight games.

Still, I feel pretty good about Arizona winning this matchup at home in the dome.

But I feel this is a closer contest, as the small spread suggests. Kyler Murray's scrambling ability can be a backbreaker for opposing defenses and I think Arizona can run the ball on the Bears to success. They are best at running outside the tackles and against light boxes.

The Bears rank 25th in yards per carry to RBs on outside tackles rushes (5.6) and 26th in rushing yards allowed to light boxes (74.6).

I'd expect a heavy dosage of running with some deep shots to rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. mixed in, as the Bears’ pass defense has been weakest against deep passes.

It's the reverse for Caleb Williams, who should bounce back after struggling last week. Arizona is awful against short passing, which is where the Bears rookie quarterback has been at his best this season. It's when Williams holds onto the ball for too long that problems start to arise.

The Cardinals' defense has generated pressure on just 26.6% of dropbacks this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

After careful consideration, I think the over might be interesting take on this game but it's razor close to my projection at 44 points that I don't think I will play it. Two teams led by rushing attacks and short passing games doesn't scream shootout even in Arizona. The Bears' No. 1 red-zone defense also concerns me about the over this game.

Props:

According to Next Gen Stats, Trey McBride leads the NFL in targets (31), receptions (24), and receiving yards (295) from tight alignment this season.

McBride has aligned tight on 62.5% of his snaps in 2024 (31.7% slot, 4.7% wide). McBride has also been effective against zone coverage, recording the 2nd-most targets (45), receptions (37), and receiving yards (377) among tight ends this season. The Bears have used zone coverage on 79.0% of dropbacks in 2024, the 4th-highest rate in the league.

Rome Odunze has at least 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games played. The Cardinals’ defense ranks 31st in DVOA against No. 3 WRs, allowing nearly 51 yards per game to opposing third options.

Odunze was the top target for the Bears in Week 8, catching three of his six targets for 41 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per reception. Odunze took on a significant role with a 29% target share and 126 air yards (45%). The overall production wasn't great, but the usage for the rookie post-bye week is excellent. Buy the rookie as the ascending WR talent on the Bears.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jaylon Johnson has forced the lowest passer rating (38.0) and lowest completion percentage over expected (-17.4%) when targeted this season (min. 25 targets).

Johnson has aligned as the Bears field corner on 83.0% of his snaps in 2024 (Tyrique Stephenson 81% boundary).

The Bears are tied with the Broncos with the fewest targets allowed to opposing No. 1 WRs this season.

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A lot of what comes down to the Eagles' covering the spread is more about their defense than offense. If they hold teams under 20 points, they are 69% ATS in their last sixteen games. The Jaguars have a 19-point implied team total and are dealing with a flurry of injuries to their WRs.

Meanwhile, the Eagles might be starting to build some momentum. They have won three straight games since the bye week and rank first in the fewest points allowed on defense over that span.

Sure, against Deshaun Watson/Daniel Jones, it wasn't impressive. But against Joe Burrow? Now you have my attention.

Jalen Hurts has been taking much better care of the football, and it is playing so much better with A.J. Brown back in the starting lineup. Turnovers figure to play a big part in this matchup.

According to Next Gen Stats, since 2022 the Eagles are 15-0 with a positive turnover differential (most wins without a loss by any team in that span), and 15-11 in games with a negative or even turnover differential.

The Jaguars have 4 takeaways this season (tied for 2nd-fewest in NFL), and a -5 turnover differential (5th-worst in NFL).

No doubt that the Eagles win this game, but I think it could get ugly against an undermanned Jaguars team. Nick Sirianni probably wants to prove a point going up against former Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson.

Props:

Against deep passes this season, the Jaguars rank fifth in attempts, first in yards, second in yards per attempt, third in EPA/pass attempt, and first in separation.

According to Next Gen Stats, A.J. Brown has generated +176 receiving yards over expected this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Brown has hauled in 4 of 7 targets for 170 yards on Go routes this year, resulting in three touchdowns and generating a +15.3 Total EPA (Highest in NFL). Since 2022, Jalen Hurts has been efficient when targeting Brown on Go routes in tight windows, completing 17 of 31 pass attempts for 583 yards and eight touchdowns (five more TDs than the next QB-WR duo).

There's not an Eagles WR receiving yards prop over that I don't love this week.

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The spread and recent line movement suggest that Jordan Love will play for the Packers in Week 9 after he logged a limited practice on Thursday.

We don't often see the Packers as home underdogs, but this is where they have hit their peak. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. And I just can't look past this being the Lions’ first game outdoors this season. And what is the forecast calling for? Definite rain showers.

As great as the Lions are to back against the spread blindly, I don't think this is the week to do so.

Back the Pack at home in this NFC North divisional showdown.

As for the specific matchup, here's what I am looking at between these two teams.

Defensively, I don't anticipate the Packers blitzing Jared Goff. The Packers’ defense has blitzed at the third-lowest rate (18.5%) but has generated pressure on 51.8% of their blitzes this season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (Next Gen Stats). The Packers have managed to generate pressure on just 27.5% of the time when sending four-or-fewer pass rushers. Their +24.3% pressure rate when blitzing compared to when not blitzing is the second-largest increase in the NFL behind the Bills (+25.0%).

Jared Goff has averaged a league-high 12.2 yards per attempt against the blitz this season. Goff also completed every one of his seven passes against the blitz for 56 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8 against the Titans.

Meanwhile, the Lions have become a blitz-happy team since they lost Aidan Hutchinson.

Jordan Love has the third-worst passer rating against the blitz this season. Love has completed the 5th-lowest percentage of his passes (54.2%) and averaged the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt (4.9) against the blitz this season. The Packers QB also hasn't been great against man coverage. Love has averaged 4.3 yards per attempt when facing man coverage, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL behind Will Levis (4.3). Love has generated -23.8 pass EPA vs man coverage, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers (-29.9). The Lions’ defense has played man coverage on a league-high 46.4% of opposing dropbacks this season.

I called out Love's poor man splits last week. Before he left the game, he threw zero TDs and an interception.

Jared Goff has faced zone on a league-high 81.0% of his dropbacks this season. More specifically, Goff has faced Cover 3 on 45.0% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.

Goff has thrown every one of his four total interceptions against zone coverage and three of his four interceptions against Cover 3 this season. Despite the mistake, Goff has averaged the 5th-most yards per attempt (8.7) and generated a 49.1% success rate when facing zone coverage this season, the 14th-highest rate in the NFL and slightly above the NFL average (46.7%). The Packers’ defense has allowed a 52.9% success rate when playing zone coverage this season, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff has targeted Amon-Ra St. Brown 46 times against zone coverage, 21 more times than he's targeted any other Lions receiver (36/46, 399 yards, 3 TD, INT).

Goff has completed 14 of 16 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown when targeting Sam LaPorta against zone coverage this season. Goff has averaged 14.1 yards per attempt when targeting LaPorta against zone coverage, the 4th-most of any QB-receiver duo and the most of any QB-tight end duo in the NFL this season (min. 15 targets).

Despite an inconsistent role, LaPorta has gone over 41.5 receiving yards in 4/7 games this season, including three of his last four. He has also gone over 40.5 receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with Jameson Williams out of the lineup. He went over 40 yards in both games against the Packers last season.

The Packers' defense has shown out in three of their last four straight games (paired with three unders). They are also 3-1 toward the under at home, with three games finishing under 48 points.

After initially leaning toward backing the Pack, I think the best play is just taking the under on the game total at 49 points. Fade Goff outdoors and Love off an injury against a heavy man/blitzing defense.

Props

According to Next Gen Stats, Jayden Reed has gained a league-high 366 receiving yards when aligned in the slot this season, including +106 receiving yards over expected, the 2nd-most in the NFL (Khalil Shakir, +112).

Reed has caught six of eight targets on vertical routes run from the slot for 234 of his 366 total receiving yards and two touchdowns, the most such yards in the NFL. The Lions’ defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards (286) on 21 slot vertical route targets faced this season, tied for the 2nd-most such targets faced in the NFL.

In a limited sample, Jared Goff has averaged 4.3 air yards per attempt with Jameson Williams off the field (32 passes) but 7.6 air yards per attempt with Williams on the field this season (157 passes).

Goff has targeted Williams on 7 of his 15 total deep passes this season, resulting in three of his seven completions, 139 of his 263 yards, and two of his three touchdowns on such attempts.

Christian Watson has been targeted on a career-low 17.2% of his routes run this season. Watson has run a deep route (20+ yards downfield) on a career-low 26.7% of his total routes.

Watson has also been targeted on a career-low 16.1% of his deep routes this season. Watson has caught 2 of 5 deep targets for 74 yards and a touchdown.

Watson has been heavily involved against man coverage this season.

Last week against the Jaguars, Watson added four catches for 39 yards, showing consistency. He tied for the team lead with six targets. Watson ran a route on 76% of dropbacks, out-pacing Dontayvion Wicks (28%). Watson received a red zone target without a catch or score. Watson garnered a 22.22% target share and collected 66 air yards (23.74%).

As pointed out last week, Watson leads GB in yards per route run against man coverage.

Per Next Gen States, the Lions have aligned their outside cornerbacks in press coverage on 35.8% of their snaps this season, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Romeo Doubs has caught every one of his five targets vs press coverage from a wide alignment for 103 yards and a touchdown this season. All other Packers receivers have caught three of nine such targets for 19 yards.

My Picks:

Sides:

Totals:

Overall:

The lines opened up with the Seahawks as slight home favorites, but the odds quickly shifted to the Rams as favorites. This is largely because the Seahawks have been vastly overrated (especially at home), and the Rams have had the edge over Seattle for a long time. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against the Seahawks.

The Ram swept Seattle last season, going 1-1 ATS.

I jumped on the Rams early in the week, so I am sitting on a +1.5 ticket that I'll likely just ride with.

I’m not sure if I am as bullish on them outright, given Puka Nacua’s recent aggravated knee injury on Thursday. If he plays, I'd presume he is fine based on what happened last week. I would go right back to the Rams as slight road favorites-a spot where they are 3-1 ATS over the last four applicable games.

The Seahawks are reeling as losers of four of their last five games. They don't play well as underdogs, so you aren't getting any "value" on them as an underdog from a betting perspective.

Simply put, the Rams win when they are favorites, and the Seahawks lose as underdogs. It doesn't help Seattle that DK Metcalf looks like a longshot to play after logging back-to-back DNPs. Tight end Noah Fant is also banged up.

From a specific matchup point of view, we just have to acknowledge how much better the Rams are offensively when they are healthy. Last week's performance against the Vikings was no fluke, and I wasn't considering the returns of the Rams WRs enough in my Thursday Night Football handicap.

And the Seahawks defensively are frauds. They looked great from Weeks 1-3 against a cupcake schedule.

Since Week 4, they have allowed the most yards per play (6.5) in the NFL.

Expect a healthy Rams offense to face little resistance. According to Next Gen Stats, the Rams offense uses motion at the highest rate in the NFL, with 84.1% of their snaps including motion. On passing plays, the Rams have the highest drop-off in success rate when not using motion, going from 51.9% when using motion to 37.8% without.

The Seahawks defense has allowed the 5th-highest completion percentage (70.2%) and success rate (48.6%) on passing plays with motion.

However, despite the Rams projected success, I still lean toward the game total under at 48.5 points. We have top injured WRs on both teams. And three of the last four matchups between the Rams-Seahawks have gone UNDER the projected total.

Props:

Since returning from injury in Week 4, Kenneth Walker has become a pass-catching machine. He has hit the over in all his receiving props in five straight, going over 30 yards in four of the games.

Every RB that is used in the passing game they have faced this season has gone over their prop with all but one going for at least 30 receiving yards.

Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 regular season appearances. Per Next Gen Stats, it's the longest active streak in the NFL and the 4th-longest such streak over the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks have allowed seven rushing TDs since Week 4 (tied for 2nd-most in the NFL during that span).

Cooper Kupp has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight regular-season appearances.

My Picks: