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Nov 06, 2024

NFL trade deadline primer: teams to watch, history of deals. Plus: Fantasy insights. - The Athletic

This article is from Scoop City, The Athletic’s daily NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox. Happy trade-deadline day! We already have our first move, with the Lions

This article is from Scoop City, The Athletic’s daily NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.

Happy trade-deadline day!

We already have our first move, with the Lions acquiring DE Za’Darius Smith and a 2026 seventh-round pick from the Browns in exchange for 2025 fifth and 2026 sixth-round picks.

Below, Dianna has breaking news on the Bengals getting involved before we look at the history of deadline day. (And go vote!)

While we aren’t expecting a big blockbuster trade before today’s 4 p.m. ET deadline, I’ve still been keeping close tabs on a surprise team: the Cincinnati Bengals.

They have now traded with the Bears to get running back Khalil Herbert, and I was told they’re not done.

Cincinnati, currently 4-5, has also been poking around in search of a cornerback and a defensive lineman to get defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo some help — edge rusher Trey Hendrickson is seen as the only threat on this Cincy defense.

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Before today, they had only acquired two players via in-season trades in 52 years. While shopping at the deadline isn’t the Bengals’ style, they have a strong belief in this team and intend to get back to, at least, the AFC Championship game.

Back to you, Jacob.

Since the media-savvy Pete Rozelle became commissioner in 1960, the NFL has grown to dominate the American sports media circuit. Even the draft, once a quiet concern in a hotel meeting room, now boasts 12 million-plus viewers annually.

But trade-deadline day is a different story. The NBA, MLB and NHL versions offer season-changing, circle-the-calendar dates. Superstars are routinely moved, as are future first-round picks. In this chart, I estimated for MLB and counted the others, and you can see the NFL’s 42 moves look sleepy in comparison:

Of course, on-field concerns make the NFL trade deadline different. Schemes, playbooks and chemistry are more complex on a football field, where a left guard’s assignments could be different for each team.

Then there are the off-field considerations. Injuries, the salary cap, a spotty history of successful in-season trades and increased relative value of rookie picks all make it difficult to find a win-win deal.

Other leagues also hold their trade deadlines closer to their postseasons. As Browns GM Andrew Berry explained in his proposal to delay the deadline, the MLB and the NBA place their annual trade deadlines after about 65 percent of the regular season has been completed, and the NHL’s trade deadline comes after 78 percent. (NFL was at 48 percent until this season).

Deadline activity has steadily risen since a 2012 rule change shifted the deadline from just after Week 6 to the Tuesday following Week 8.

This year, we could be in for the busiest deadline day yet (that Bears-Bengals trade broke as we were assembling this newsletter, after all).

That’s because today’s deadline comes after 53 percent of games, as teams voted to shift it to after Week 9 this offseason. But even if it surpasses 2022’s 10 trades, the NFL will still have the calmest deadline day. Then again, if it’s not broken …

As for who might participate:

Buyers:

Sellers:

As for whether any trades will work out, we’ll follow up a year from now. In the meantime, Mike’s 2023 retrospective trade analysis is a fun read.

For the latest:

I wish Browns WR Cedric Tillman had been my No. 1 fantasy add last week. He caught six of 11 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, and now has 18-plus points in each game without Amari Cooper.

Other top adds before Week 11:

No. 2: 49ers WRs Jauan Jennings and/or Ricky Pearsall. Coming off their bye, they face a Seahawks defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers. With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle almost always fighting through injuries, and Brandon Aiyuk done for the year, both Jennings and Pearsall offer strong floor/ceiling combinations.

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No. 3: Bengals RB Khalil Herbert. Yes, he’s now a must-add as the 1B to Chase Brown in Cincy.

No. 4: Bills RB Ray Davis. If James Cook misses time, the bruising Davis — whose 3.1 yards after contact per rush rank 19th among backs and ahead of Jonathan Taylor’s 3.04 — looks like a league-winner.

No. 5: Bengals TE Mike Gesicki. You’re only starting him if Tee Higgins is ruled out. But on a short week (Cincy plays Baltimore on Thursday), Gesicki’s 100-plus receiving yards in Week 9 can’t be ignored.

Deeper leagues: Giants TE Theo Johnson quietly saw six targets and posted 14.1 points in Week 9. As mentioned, Panthers RB Miles Sanders could be moved. If Josh Jacobs aggravates his injury, you’ll be glad you stashed Packers RB Emanuel Wilson.

I’m buying:

I’m selling:

For more:

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(Photo: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)

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